You guys have loved the gambling picks so much every week I decided to do you all a favor and offer up 10 trends that caught my eye this week. Check back tomorrow morning for my official picks, and a full dive into this week’s gambling coverage on the CFB Country podcast, dropping Thursday night. The picks are on fire this season, now 34-17 against the spread, 8-4 in the last two weeks.
Now…enjoy, you filthy degenerates.
- Last Team Standing
Georgia Tech is the last team left in the FBS that’s undefeated against the spread this season. The Yellow Jackets are printing money; now 6-0 ATS. They’ve been underdogs twice this season: +4 vs Tennessee (lost 42-41), and +6.5 at Miami (lost 25-24). Paul Johnson’s team is quietly dangerously close to being undefeated and a likely top-10 team. They are catching 14 points this week at Clemson, who’s coming off a bye week after the upset loss at Syracuse.
- Two ships passing in the night…
Boston College and Florida State are two teams heading in opposite directions right now. The Seminoles are 4.5-point favorites on the road Friday night, but are 0-4-2 against the spread in their last six games. Meanwhile the Eagles have covered five straight. They’ve also won their of their last four straight up, including their last two as underdogs.
- The greatest spread money can buy?
SMU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 against teams with a losing record. They Mustangs are nine-point favorites at home against Tulsa. If you throw out a completely wacky 45-17 win over Houston a few weeks ago, the Golden Hurricanes have been a disaster all year long. They’d be 1-5 against the spread, with an average spread margin of 7.3 points (meaning they fall more than a touchdown short of covering the spread on average).
- Shooting blanks?
West Virginia and Oklahoma State get together on Saturday which means buckle up for some touchdowns, right? Maybe not. These two teams are a combined 12-3 to the UNDER in their last 15 combined games against ranked teams. Although you can bet Mike Gundy will take some shots against a West Virginia defense that let Baylor run like a hot knife through better last Saturday night. The total in that game is 73.5.
- Golden Ticket for Golden Bears
Cal is a short 3.5-point favorite on the road against Colorado this week. The Buffaloes have not covered in any of their four home games this season. This is the weirdest line of the week. Two weeks ago, Cal beat Washington State 37-3. The Cougars turned around and shut out Colorado 28-0 eight days later. Now Colorado is favored? Something’s fishy here.
- Sharks for San Jose
Where else are you going to get expert intel on betting San Jose State football games? Nowhere! But I’m here to please. Spartans QB Montel Aaron will likely get his second start this week. He missed three games due to injury, and the Spartans were 0-3 ATS. When he’s attempted 10 passes or more, they are 3-1 against the spread.. Meanwhile, BYU is 0-8 against the number. They’ve been one of the biggest disasters in all of college football this season. The Cougars are 12.5-point favorites, yet they only average 12.1 points per game, that’s 128th in the country.
- Something’s got to give in South Bend
Notre Dame has covered five straight games, as the world slowly starts to realize just how good the Fighting Irish really are. Meanwhile, NC State has covered five straight on the road. The Wolfpack are 7.5-point ‘dogs in South Bend. That hook scares me. I think this line is about right. The Irish are the better team, but how will they respond a week after an emotional blowout win against archrival USC?
- Gators chomping at the bit?
Betting on Florida this season usually requires a pack of antacids. The Gators offense averages less than one passing touchdown per game. Points are painfully hard to come by for Jim McElwain’s team, BUT Florida has covered four straight against Georgia. The line this weekend actually opened at 14 and has come down to 13.5, suggesting some money is coming in on the Gators. I will not be backing Florida, but weird things do always seem to happen in this rivalry.
- Happy Bettors in Happy Valley
Penn State backers have been on a tear in the past 12 months. The Nittany Lions are 11-1-1 against the spread in their last 13 conference games. I’ve been saying for weeks I thought Ohio State would win this weekend in Columbus, but even I can’t deny there’s a ton of value in getting 6.5 or 7 points along with Penn State this weekend. I surely wouldn’t feel safe laying the points with the Buckeyes.
- Low-scoring Lane Stadium
Duke is a 15.5-point ‘dog in Blacksburg this weekend. I don’t have a great feel for the side here, but the total of 49 is awfully intriguing. The UNDER is 20-9 in the last 29 ACC games for Virginia Tech. The Hokies’ defense is 5th nationally in points per game allowed, while Duke’s offense has bottomed out since beating UNC five weeks ago. The Blue Devils are scoring less than 12 points per game in their last four. The toughest defense they faced in that stretch was Miami, who held Duke to six points. The Hokies are by far the best defense they’ll have played in that stretch. If this game is going to go over the total of 49, The Hokies are going to have to get close to 40 themselves.