Take the Points: Week 2 College Football Betting Preview

(Image courtesy: USA Today Sports)

I think it’s an official NCAA rule now that every college football team needs a hashtag. Some of them are motivational, like Alabama’s #OutworkYesterday. Others are just embarrassing, like Florida State’s #DoSomething.

Is that not the least original slogan in history? I have to imagine Willie Taggart signed off on this. Should we really be surprised the Seminoles ran the most predictable offense in America on Monday night after finding out their model was seriously “Do Something”? Talk about setting the bar high.

Here at CFB Country, we’re jumping on the hashtag bandwagon this year with #BuyTheBoat.

Out of the goodness of my heart, every Friday I offer the most surefire bets to win you money on college football. Last year we won almost 65% of the time. Last week we started 3-2. Was it our best? No. But we did we we needed to do to find a win. Let’s keep it rolling this week, and in three months, we can call Momma and tell her to #BuyTheBoat.

UCLA at Oklahoma (-30)

The only thing that can stop Oklahoma from steamrolling everybody this season is if the Falcons just say screw it and replace Dan Quinn with Lincoln Riley tomorrow. The Sooners are even better than a year ago. Florida Atlantic is not as bad as Kyler Murray and Rodney Anderson made them look last week. I liked Oklahoma -21 and they covered that before the end of the first quarter. Meanwhile UCLA will be a hot mess until Chip Kelly has time to recruit literally anyone on offense who runs a sub-5 40.

Oklahoma 56, UCLA 17

Air Force at Florida Atlantic (-9)

If FAU wasn’t murdered so badly by Oklahoma, this line is closer to 14. Last week was more about how good the Sooners are, not how bad the Owls are. Give me the Kiffins and some value in a bounceback game.

FAU 42, Air Force 24

#BuyTheBoat Lock of the Week: Arkansas State (+37) at Alabama

There’s no easier way to make money than to fade Alabama in Week 2. It’s amazing how predictable the Crimson Tide are in September. They obliterate a Power Five team in Week 1, go into hibernation for a few weeks, then bring out the big guns again once SEC play begins. In their last 10 early-season games against Group of Five teams, the Tide are 2-8 against the spread. On average, they’re favored by 39.8 points in those games. Their average margin of victory is 33.4. Saban simply doesn’t run it up on these teams when he could easily win by 70 if he wanted to. It’s not his style. Also, Arkansas State has one of the best offenses outside of the Power Five led by Justice Hansen. They won’t move the ball on the first-string defense for Alabama, but once the backups come in I think the Red Wolves put up a couple touchdowns of their own.

Alabama 42, Arkansas State 14

UTSA at Baylor (Under 51)

I was scrolling through the Action Network’s incredible app earlier this week and this number jumped off the screen at me. NINETY percent of the action on this total was on the over. I know exactly what everyone’s thinking: it’s Baylor, they’re going to get to 50 points themselves!

This isn’t your big brother’s Baylor. Matt Rhule has turned it around already in Waco and the Bears are a borderline bowl team. But his offense isn’t in the same zipcode as Art Briles, and the days of the Bears hitting 40 points in a half against low-lifes like UTSA are over. The Roadrunners lost 49-7 to Arizona State a week ago, and I can’t see them getting more than 14 this week. Meanwhile, Baylor is a much more run-oriented team than people realize. Life might be too short to be the under, but it’s also too short to be poor.

Baylor 34, UTSA 10

Kentucky (+13.5) at Florida

This is the Peter Burns Special. He talked me into Kentucky a few weeks ago on the CFB Country podcast, and I’m buying what he’s selling — or at least what Mark Stoops sold him. Benny Snell is the best running back nobody’s heard of. Do we really expect Dan Mullen’s offense to hit the ground running this early? I don’t see it. Kentucky should have won this game last year if they remembered to play 11 players on defense. An upset in the swamp would send Gator fans into hysterics. It wouldn’t shock me if it happened.

Florida 24, Kentucky 21

USC at Stanford (-6)

I’m a little puzzled at the lack of Stanford love around the country. Anddddddd I just realized I made a nice little pun, there. Bryce Love (get it?) got off to a slow start last week against San Diego State, but the Cardinal didn’t need him because KJ Costello and JJ Arcega-Whiteside were too busy dropping bombs all over the place for it to matter. Costello is a legit pro prospect at quarterback; probably the best QB they’ve had since Andrew Luck. That three-headed monster on offense is too much for USC, who struggled to put UNLV away last week. JT Daniels gets his first road start in Palo Alto, and he’s not beating this Stanford offense. Cardinals win going away.

Stanford 34, USC 17

Georgia (-10) at South Carolina

CFB Country will be at this game and I could not be more jacked up for it. This is the biggest home game for the Gamecocks since 2010 when they upset Alabama, better known as the Stephen Garcia game. If history repeats itself on Saturday, the Gamecocks have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game. Not only would the Gamecocks now have a two-game cushion in the East race, but their path through the conference pales in comparison to the gauntlet Georgia’s facing. They take on Ole Miss and Texas A&M from the West, while Georgia gets LSU and Auburn. So yeah, no pressure Cocky.

While I’d love to see something special in Williams-Brice on Saturday, Georgia’s in another league right now. Just like Oklahoma, I actually think the Bulldogs might be better this year than a year ago. The defense is much younger, but the running game is just as dominant with DeAndre Swift and Elijah Holyfield. Jake Fromm has the moxie and experience under his belt to handle the atmosphere. The Bulldogs will dominate the line of scrimmage and walk out of Columbia with a comfortable win.

Georgia 38, South Carolina 14

There you have it. We went 3-2 last week and we’re going 6-0 this week. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but I think we can go ahead and #BuyTheBoat.

 

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